Xpect
Parma vs AS Roma: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie A · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Serie A, 21 November 2026: Parma are at home to AS Roma. AS Roma sit 3rd in the 20-team table while Parma are 16th, so 13 places separate the two sides. AS Roma are in the top three.
An uneven run for Parma: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. AS Roma have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches.
Parma have not made their ground a fortress: 11 wins, 14 draws and 19 defeats in 44 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. AS Roma travel well: 20 wins, 10 draws and 13 defeats in 43 away matches, with 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
Head to head, AS Roma have the upper hand: 36 wins in 53 meetings with Parma in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Parma 2:3 AS Roma. On average these meetings produce 2.7 goals.
Form
Parma: last five matches — D-W-L-D-L.
- 3 matches without a win · at home
AS Roma: last five matches — W-D-D-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Parma — 16, AS Roma — 3 (of 20).
Home and away record
Parma at home and AS Roma away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Parma | AS Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 11-14-19 | 20-10-13 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Head to head
53 meetings in our database: Parma won 8, 9 draws, AS Roma won 36. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 10.05.2026: Parma 2:3 AS Roma
- 29.10.2025: AS Roma 2:1 Parma
- 16.02.2025: Parma 0:1 AS Roma
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Head to head favours AS Roma: 36 wins in 53 meetings with Parma.
- Our model expects more corners from AS Roma: 6.8 against 3.0 for Parma.
- AS Roma is the more likely winner in our model: 70%, draw 19%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 43% of Parma’s home matches and 37% of AS Roma’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Parma 3.0, AS Roma 6.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Parma 1.7, AS Roma 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 53%, typical match 34%.
Result
Our model: Parma win 12%, draw 19%, AS Roma win 70%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 46%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Parma | AS Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 25% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 37% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 46% | 44% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 43% | 33% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.