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Como vs Cagliari: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie A · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Serie A, 21 November 2026: Como are at home to Cagliari. Como go into the match 5th of 20 in the table, Cagliari are 9th.
Few sides are in better shape than Como right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Cagliari have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 13 for Como against 6 for Cagliari.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Como have 21 wins, 12 draws and 9 defeats in 42 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The away record of Cagliari: 10 wins, 11 draws and 23 defeats in 44 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 8 meetings — wins: Como 3, Cagliari 2; draws: 3. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026, finished Cagliari 1:2 Como. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Como: last five matches — W-D-W-W-W.
- 10 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · at home
Cagliari: last five matches — W-W-L-L-L.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Como — 5, Cagliari — 9 (of 20).
Home and away record
Como at home and Cagliari away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Como | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-12-9 | 10-11-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Como won 3, 3 draws, Cagliari won 2. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 07.03.2026: Cagliari 1:2 Como
- 08.11.2025: Como 0:0 Cagliari
- 10.05.2025: Como 3:1 Cagliari
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Como is the more likely winner in our model: 73%, draw 18%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 43% of Como’s home matches and 55% of Cagliari’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Como: 6.9 against 2.8 for Cagliari.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Como 6.9, Cagliari 2.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 50%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Como 1.5, Cagliari 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 71%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Como win 73%, draw 18%, Cagliari win 9%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 39%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Como | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 55% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | 8.0 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 29% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 43% | 30% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.7 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.