Xpect
Napoli vs Torino: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie A · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Serie A, 21 November 2026: Napoli are at home to Torino. They are neighbours in the table: Napoli are 10th and Torino 11th of 20.
Few sides are in better shape than Napoli right now — 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games. Torino have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Napoli are hard to beat on their own ground — 29 wins, 9 draws and 5 defeats in 43 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. The away record of Torino: 10 wins, 13 draws and 20 defeats in 43 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 38 meetings — wins: Napoli 20, Torino 6; draws: 12. The most recent meeting, on 6 March 2026, finished Napoli 2:1 Torino. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Napoli: last five matches — W-W-W-D-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Torino: last five matches — L-W-D-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Napoli — 10, Torino — 11 (of 20).
Home and away record
Napoli at home and Torino away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Napoli | Torino | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 29-9-5 | 10-13-20 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.6 |
Head to head
38 meetings in our database: Napoli won 20, 12 draws, Torino won 6. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 06.03.2026: Napoli 2:1 Torino
- 18.10.2025: Torino 1:0 Napoli
- 27.04.2025: Napoli 2:0 Torino
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Napoli is the more likely winner in our model: 56%, draw 23%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 56% of Napoli’s home matches and 49% of Torino’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Napoli: 6.3 against 3.3 for Torino.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Napoli 6.3, Torino 3.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: Napoli 1.3, Torino 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 22% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 61%, typical match 34%.
Result
Our model: Napoli win 56%, draw 23%, Torino win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 53%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Napoli | Torino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 67% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 47% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 14% | 30% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.