Xpect
Lyon vs Nice: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 1 · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Lyon 5.6, Nice 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Lyon 1.6, Nice 2.3; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 54%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Lyon win 51%, draw 23%, Nice win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Lyon: last five matches — W-L-D-W-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Nice: last five matches — L-D-D-L-L.
- 7 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Lyon — 3, Nice — 15 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Lyon at home and Nice away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Lyon | Nice | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 36 |
| Win rate | 68% | 25% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 31% |
Head to head
57 meetings in our database: Lyon won 30, 13 draws, Nice won 14. Per match: 2.9 goals, 9.5 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 15.02.2026: Lyon 2:0 Nice
- 18.10.2025: Nice 3:2 Lyon
- 09.03.2025: Nice 0:2 Lyon
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Lyon vs Nice?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 57%.
How many yellow cards in Lyon vs Nice?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 35%.
Who is more likely to win Lyon vs Nice?
Our model: Lyon 51%, draw 23%, Nice 26%.