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Manchester City vs AEK Athens: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Manchester City · AEK Athens
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Manchester City 7.1, AEK Athens 2.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 51%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Manchester City 1.7, AEK Athens 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 66%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Manchester City win 72%, draw 18%, AEK Athens win 10%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 43%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
Manchester City
All 11: 6W · 1D · 4L · goals 18:14
Home 5: 3W · 0D · 2L · goals 9:5
- 08.09.26 · UCL · FC Porto (a) 2:0
- 17.03.26 · UCL · Real Madrid (h) 1:2
- 11.03.26 · UCL · Real Madrid (a) 0:3
- 28.01.26 · UCL · Galatasaray (h) 2:0
- 20.01.26 · UCL · Bodo/Glimt (a) 1:3
League · Premier League 2026/27: 1 of 20 · 6W · 0D · 0L · goals 16:5. England — 1 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 103.8).
AEK Athens
All 19: 11W · 5D · 3L · goals 35:17
Away 9: 3W · 4D · 2L · goals 11:10
- 08.09.26 · UCL · Lask Linz (h) 1:0
- 26.08.26 · UCL · Levski Sofia (h) 4:0
- 18.08.26 · UCL · Levski Sofia (a) 0:0
- 16.04.26 · UECL · Rayo Vallecano (h) 3:1
- 09.04.26 · UECL · Rayo Vallecano (a) 0:3
League · Super League 2026/27: 2 of 14 · 4W · 2D · 0L · goals 16:3. Greece — 12 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 45.0).
UCL: league phase 2026/27: Manchester City — 8 of 36 · 3 pts · 1 played; AEK Athens — 15 of 36 · 3 pts · 1 played.
Head to head in Europe
They have not met in Europe before.
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
Manchester City: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 8 wins in a row · all competitions
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
AEK Athens: last five matches — D-D-W-D-W.
- 13 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Manchester City at home and AEK Athens away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Manchester City | AEK Athens | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 1 |
| Win rate | 50% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 0% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 0% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 3.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Manchester City vs AEK Athens?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in Manchester City vs AEK Athens?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 34%.
Who is more likely to win Manchester City vs AEK Athens?
Our model: Manchester City 72%, draw 18%, AEK Athens 10%.