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Mladost DG vs Arsenal Tivat: prediction and statistics
Montenegro · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Mladost DG · Arsenal Tivat
Before kick-off
Mladost DG host Arsenal Tivat in First League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Mladost DG are 9th, Arsenal Tivat 10th in a table of 10. Both sides are in the bottom three.
Results have gone against Mladost DG recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. An uneven run for Arsenal Tivat: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 4 and 5.
The home record of Mladost DG (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 11 wins, 2 draws and 12 defeats in 25 matches, 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Away from home Arsenal Tivat have 11 wins, 13 draws and 20 defeats in 44 matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.6 per game.
The 14 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Mladost DG 6, Arsenal Tivat 7, draws 1. Last time out (10 September 2026) it ended Arsenal Tivat 0:1 Mladost DG. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Mladost DG: last five matches — L-L-W-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Arsenal Tivat: last five matches — D-L-W-D-L.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Mladost DG — 9, Arsenal Tivat — 10 (of 10).
Home and away record
Mladost DG at home and Arsenal Tivat away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Mladost DG | Arsenal Tivat | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 11-2-12 | 11-13-20 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: Mladost DG won 6, 1 draws, Arsenal Tivat won 7. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 10.09.2026: Arsenal Tivat 0:1 Mladost DG
- 01.07.2026: Arsenal Tivat 1:0 Mladost DG
- 24.05.2026: Arsenal Tivat 1:4 Mladost DG
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 52% of Mladost DG home games and 46% of Arsenal Tivat away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Mladost DG 1.6, Arsenal Tivat 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 65%, typical match 58%.
Result
Our model: Mladost DG win 49%, draw 25%, Arsenal Tivat win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 52%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Mladost DG | Arsenal Tivat | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 41% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 32% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.