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Mornar vs Sutjeska: prediction and statistics
Montenegro · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
First League, 21 November 2026: Mornar are at home to Sutjeska. They are neighbours in the table: Mornar are 3rd and Sutjeska 4th of 10. Mornar are part of the leading group.
Recent results of Mornar are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Sutjeska are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 2 wins and 3 draws. In points that is almost level: 8 against 9.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Mornar have 20 wins, 13 draws and 10 defeats in 43 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Sutjeska travel well: 19 wins, 11 draws and 13 defeats in 43 away matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
Head to head there is no clear master over 27 meetings — wins: Mornar 10, Sutjeska 10; draws: 7. The most recent meeting, on 8 September 2026, finished Sutjeska 1:0 Mornar. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Mornar: last five matches — W-L-D-W-D.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Sutjeska: last five matches — D-W-D-D-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 6 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Mornar — 3, Sutjeska — 4 (of 10).
Home and away record
Mornar at home and Sutjeska away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Mornar | Sutjeska | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 20-13-10 | 19-11-13 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Head to head
27 meetings in our database: Mornar won 10, 7 draws, Sutjeska won 10. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 08.09.2026: Sutjeska 1:0 Mornar
- 24.06.2026: Mornar 1:0 Sutjeska
- 08.04.2026: Mornar 2:1 Sutjeska
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 42% of Mornar’s home matches and 30% of Sutjeska’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Mornar 1.5, Sutjeska 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 27% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 55%, typical match 38%.
Result
Our model: Mornar win 48%, draw 28%, Sutjeska win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 45%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Mornar | Sutjeska | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 47% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 30% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 40% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 42% | 37% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.