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Petrovac vs Dečić: prediction and statistics
Montenegro · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
First League, 21 November 2026: Petrovac are at home to Dečić. Petrovac go into the match 8th of 10 in the table, Dečić are 5th. Petrovac are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
An uneven run for Petrovac: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Dečić are still looking for a win: 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 6 for Petrovac against 1 for Dečić.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Petrovac have 19 wins, 14 draws and 10 defeats in 43 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. The away record of Dečić: 11 wins, 16 draws and 15 defeats in 42 matches, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded on average. Both samples are low on goals: 2.2 per game in home matches of Petrovac and 1.9 in away matches of Dečić.
This fixture often ends level: 15 of the 30 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 9 September 2026, finished Dečić 1:1 Petrovac. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Petrovac: last five matches — L-L-W-L-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Dečić: last five matches — L-L-D-L-L.
- 10 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 5 matches without a win · away
Table: Petrovac — 8, Dečić — 5 (of 10).
Home and away record
Petrovac at home and Dečić away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Petrovac | Dečić | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 42 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 19-14-10 | 11-16-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.1 |
Head to head
30 meetings in our database: Petrovac won 5, 15 draws, Dečić won 10. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 09.09.2026: Dečić 1:1 Petrovac
- 02.05.2026: Petrovac 1:1 Dečić
- 07.03.2026: Dečić 0:1 Petrovac
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 35% of Petrovac’s home matches and 24% of Dečić’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 15 of 30 meetings.
- No clear favourite in our model: 43% – 31% – 27%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Petrovac 2.2, Dečić 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 62%, typical match 58%.
Result
Our model: Petrovac win 43%, draw 31%, Dečić win 27%. Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 38%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Petrovac | Dečić | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 24% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 49% | 26% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.