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Navbahor vs Neftchi: prediction and statistics
Uzbekistan · Super League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Navbahor · Neftchi
Before kick-off
Super League, 20 November 2026: Navbahor are at home to Neftchi. They are neighbours in the table: Navbahor are 3rd and Neftchi 1st of 16. Both sides are in the top three.
Few sides are in better shape than Navbahor right now — 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games. Neftchi have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 11 against 10.
At home (2024–2026) Navbahor have 19 wins, 16 draws and 6 defeats in 41 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Neftchi travel well: 21 wins, 13 draws and 7 defeats in 41 away matches, with 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
This fixture often ends level: 11 of the 25 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 28 July 2026, finished Neftchi 1:1 Navbahor. On average these meetings produce 1.9 goals.
Form
Navbahor: last five matches — D-W-D-W-W.
- 17 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Neftchi: last five matches — W-W-W-D-L.
- 10 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Navbahor — 3, Neftchi — 1 (of 16).
Home and away record
Navbahor at home and Neftchi away, 2024–2026.
| Navbahor | Neftchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 41 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 19-16-6 | 21-13-7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.8 |
Head to head
25 meetings in our database: Navbahor won 6, 11 draws, Neftchi won 8. Per match: 1.9 goals.
- 28.07.2026: Neftchi 1:1 Navbahor
- 16.08.2025: Navbahor 0:1 Neftchi
- 15.04.2025: Navbahor 1:1 Neftchi
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 42% of Navbahor’s home matches and 42% of Neftchi’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 11 of 25 meetings.
- No clear favourite in our model: 45% – 23% – 32%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Navbahor 1.5, Neftchi 2.3; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 66%.
Result
Our model: Navbahor win 45%, draw 23%, Neftchi win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 63%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Navbahor | Neftchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 46% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 24% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.