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Paris FC vs Stade Rennais: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 1 · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Paris FC 5.0, Stade Rennais 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 53%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Paris FC 2.0, Stade Rennais 1.6; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 51%, typical match 47%.
Result
Our model: Paris FC win 48%, draw 24%, Stade Rennais win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
Paris FC: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Stade Rennais: last five matches — L-W-D-L-L.
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Paris FC — 4, Stade Rennais — 6 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Paris FC at home and Stade Rennais away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Paris FC | Stade Rennais | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 20 | 36 |
| Win rate | 45% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 75% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 45% | 44% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 39% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Paris FC won 0, 0 draws, Stade Rennais won 2. Per match: 2.0 goals, 13.5 corners, 4.0 yellow cards.
- 10.05.2026: Stade Rennais 2:1 Paris FC
- 07.11.2025: Paris FC 0:1 Stade Rennais
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Paris FC vs Stade Rennais?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 53%.
How many yellow cards in Paris FC vs Stade Rennais?
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 30%.
Who is more likely to win Paris FC vs Stade Rennais?
Our model: Paris FC 48%, draw 24%, Stade Rennais 28%.