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Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona: prediction and statistics

Europe · Champions League · 20 October 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Paris Saint-Germain · Barcelona

Corners

52%

Corners under 9.5

Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Paris Saint-Germain 5.9, Barcelona 3.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 49%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 51%.

Yellow cards

72%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Paris Saint-Germain 1.6, Barcelona 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 43%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 53%, typical match 38%.

Result

Our model: Paris Saint-Germain win 35%, draw 22%, Barcelona win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 69%.

European cups

Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format

Paris Saint-Germain

All 18: 12W · 4D · 2L · goals 55:27
Home 10: 7W · 2D · 1L · goals 36:19

League · Ligue 1 2026/27: 6 of 18 · 3W · 2D · 1L · goals 11:8. France — 5 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 69.2).

Barcelona

All 13: 8W · 2D · 3L · goals 37:21
Away 6: 3W · 2D · 1L · goals 12:11

League · La Liga 2026/27: 1 of 20 · 8W · 0D · 0L · goals 34:7. Spain — 3 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 83.2).

UCL: league phase 2026/27: Paris Saint-Germain — 1 of 36 · 3 pts · 1 played; Barcelona — 3 of 36 · 3 pts · 1 played.

Head to head in Europe

Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.

Form

Paris Saint-Germain: last five matches — D-W-L-W-W.

Barcelona: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.

Team statistics for three seasons

Paris Saint-Germain at home and Barcelona away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Paris Saint-GermainBarcelona
Matches1913
Win rate68%54%
Goals scored per match3.22.4
Goals conceded per match1.42.1
Over 2.5 goals74%85%
Both teams score68%85%
Total corners per match9.49.0
Over 9.5 corners44%46%
Total yellow cards per match2.74.1
Over 4.5 yellow cards22%54%

Head to head

13 meetings in our database: Paris Saint-Germain won 5, 3 draws, Barcelona won 5. Per match: 4.0 goals, 10.7 corners, 3.9 yellow cards.

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers

How many corners in Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona?

Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.

How many yellow cards in Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona?

Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 28%.

Who is more likely to win Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona?

Our model: Paris Saint-Germain 35%, draw 22%, Barcelona 43%.

Other matches

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