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Puebla vs Monterrey: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 22 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Puebla · Monterrey
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 56% of Puebla’s home matches and 56% of Monterrey’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Monterrey: 6.2 against 4.1 for Puebla.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Puebla 4.1, Monterrey 6.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 58%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Puebla 2.2, Monterrey 1.8; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Puebla win 31%, draw 24%, Monterrey win 45%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 60%.
Form
Puebla: last five matches — D-W-L-D-D.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Monterrey: last five matches — L-D-L-L-D.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Puebla — 9, Monterrey — 10 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Puebla at home and Monterrey away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Puebla | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 45 |
| Win rate | 23% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 10.5 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 62% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 39% | 38% |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: Puebla won 4, 7 draws, Monterrey won 9. Per match: 2.7 goals, 9.9 corners, 3.7 yellow cards.
- 22.04.2026: Monterrey 2:1 Puebla
- 30.08.2025: Puebla 2:4 Monterrey
- 13.01.2025: Monterrey 1:1 Puebla
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Puebla vs Monterrey?
Our model expects 10.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 58%.
How many yellow cards in Puebla vs Monterrey?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 37%.
Who is more likely to win Puebla vs Monterrey?
Our model: Puebla 31%, draw 24%, Monterrey 45%.