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Safa Baku vs Qabala: prediction and statistics
Azerbaijan · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Safa Baku · Qabala
Before kick-off
Safa Baku host Qabala in Premier League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Safa Baku are 11th, Qabala 10th in a table of 12. Both sides are in the bottom three.
Results have gone against Safa Baku recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Qabala are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Measured in points the two runs are close — 4 and 3.
Home matches have been a struggle for Safa Baku (2024/25–2026/27) — 1 win, 1 draw and 4 defeats in 6 games, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.5 on average. Qabala find it hard on the road: 4 wins, 3 draws and 15 defeats in 22 away matches, 0.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 2 meetings between them. Last time out (22 August 2026) it ended Qabala 0:1 Safa Baku.
Form
Safa Baku: last five matches — L-L-L-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Qabala: last five matches — L-L-L-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Safa Baku — 11, Qabala — 10 (of 12).
Home and away record
Safa Baku at home and Qabala away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Safa Baku | Qabala | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 22 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 1-1-4 | 4-3-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Safa Baku won 1, 0 draws, Qabala won 1. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 22.08.2026: Qabala 0:1 Safa Baku
- 04.12.2025: Qabala 2:1 Safa Baku
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 50% of Safa Baku home games and 41% of Qabala away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Safa Baku 2.0, Qabala 1.6; typical match of the competition — 4.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 71%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Safa Baku win 29%, draw 26%, Qabala win 45%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Safa Baku | Qabala | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 17% | 18% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 41% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.2 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 17% | 32% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.