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Şamaxı FK vs Turan: prediction and statistics
Azerbaijan · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Premier League, 21 November 2026: Şamaxı FK are at home to Turan. Şamaxı FK go into the match 7th of 12 in the table, Turan are 3rd. Turan are in the top three.
Recent results of Şamaxı FK are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. Turan have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 9 against 8.
Şamaxı FK have not made their ground a fortress: 12 wins, 9 draws and 17 defeats in 38 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Turan travel well: 16 wins, 15 draws and 10 defeats in 41 away matches, with 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Both samples are low on goals: 2.2 per game in home matches of Şamaxı FK and 2.1 in away matches of Turan.
Head to head there is no clear master over 13 meetings — wins: Şamaxı FK 2, Turan 6; draws: 5. The most recent meeting, on 23 August 2026, finished Turan 0:0 Şamaxı FK. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Şamaxı FK: last five matches — L-W-W-W-L.
- 9 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Turan: last five matches — D-W-L-D-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Şamaxı FK — 7, Turan — 3 (of 12).
Home and away record
Şamaxı FK at home and Turan away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Şamaxı FK | Turan | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 41 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 12-9-17 | 16-15-10 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 0.9 |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Şamaxı FK won 2, 5 draws, Turan won 6. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 23.08.2026: Turan 0:0 Şamaxı FK
- 16.05.2026: Şamaxı FK 3:2 Turan
- 16.02.2026: Şamaxı FK 0:0 Turan
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 29% – 28% – 43%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 45% of Şamaxı FK’s home matches and 34% of Turan’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Şamaxı FK 1.9, Turan 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Şamaxı FK win 29%, draw 28%, Turan win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 46%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Şamaxı FK | Turan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 32% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 34% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 42% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 47% | 49% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.