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Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 22 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Santos Laguna · U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 38% – 25% – 37%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 46% of Santos Laguna’s home matches and 50% of U.N.A.M. - Pumas’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Santos Laguna: 6.2 against 4.0 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Santos Laguna 6.2, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Santos Laguna 1.9, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 61%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Santos Laguna win 38%, draw 25%, U.N.A.M. - Pumas win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Form
Santos Laguna: last five matches — L-L-D-W-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
U.N.A.M. - Pumas: last five matches — L-D-L-L-D.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 6 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Santos Laguna — 14, U.N.A.M. - Pumas — 12 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Santos Laguna at home and U.N.A.M. - Pumas away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Santos Laguna | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 46 |
| Win rate | 36% | 35% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | 11.2 | 9.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 62% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 59% | 44% |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: Santos Laguna won 8, 4 draws, U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 8. Per match: 3.2 goals, 11.0 corners, 4.4 yellow cards.
- 31.01.2026: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 4:0 Santos Laguna
- 13.07.2025: Santos Laguna 3:0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 17.04.2025: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2:0 Santos Laguna
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 39%.
Who is more likely to win Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
Our model: Santos Laguna 38%, draw 25%, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 37%.