Xpect
Schalke 04 vs Mainz: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Schalke 04 5.0, Mainz 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Schalke 04 1.9, Mainz 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 57%, typical match 55%.
Result
Market line without margin: Schalke 04 win 33%, draw 26%, Mainz win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 61%.
Form
Schalke 04: last five matches — W-L-L-D-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Mainz: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 10 matches unbeaten · away
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 4 wins in a row · away
Table: Schalke 04 — 11, Mainz — 7 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Schalke 04 at home and Mainz away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Schalke 04 | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 36 |
| Win rate | 0% | 44% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 69% |
| Both teams score | 0% | 58% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 42% |
Head to head
33 meetings in our database: Schalke 04 won 19, 7 draws, Mainz won 7. Per match: 2.3 goals, 9.7 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 05.05.2023: Mainz 2:3 Schalke 04
- 09.11.2022: Schalke 04 1:0 Mainz
- 05.03.2021: Schalke 04 0:0 Mainz
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Schalke 04 vs Mainz?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 47%.
How many yellow cards in Schalke 04 vs Mainz?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 38%.
Who is more likely to win Schalke 04 vs Mainz?
Market line without margin: Schalke 04 33%, draw 26%, Mainz 42%.