Xpect
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Iwaki: prediction and statistics
Japan · J2 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Tegevajaro Miyazaki · Iwaki
Before kick-off
J2 League, 21 November 2026: Tegevajaro Miyazaki are at home to Iwaki. Tegevajaro Miyazaki sit 2nd in the 20-team table while Iwaki are 9th, so 7 places separate the two sides. Tegevajaro Miyazaki are part of the leading group.
Few sides are in better shape than Tegevajaro Miyazaki right now — 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Iwaki recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 11 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki against 4 for Iwaki.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki are hard to beat on their own ground — 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat in 9 home matches (2024–2026), with 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. The away record of Iwaki: 19 wins, 9 draws and 18 defeats in 46 matches, with 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average.
Head to head, Tegevajaro Miyazaki have the upper hand: 2 wins in 3 meetings with Iwaki in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 30 October 2022, finished Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1:0 Iwaki. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
Tegevajaro Miyazaki: last five matches — D-D-W-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Iwaki: last five matches — L-L-D-W-L.
- 20 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Tegevajaro Miyazaki — 2, Iwaki — 9 (of 20).
Home and away record
Tegevajaro Miyazaki at home and Iwaki away, 2024–2026.
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Iwaki | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 46 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 5-3-1 | 19-9-18 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Tegevajaro Miyazaki won 2, 0 draws, Iwaki won 1. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 30.10.2022: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1:0 Iwaki
- 02.07.2022: Iwaki 2:0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
- 29.11.2020: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 3:0 Iwaki
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 44% of Tegevajaro Miyazaki’s home matches and 46% of Iwaki’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Tegevajaro Miyazaki: 2 wins in 3 meetings with Iwaki.
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki is the more likely winner in our model: 53%, draw 25%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.1 yellow cards: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.4, Iwaki 1.8; typical match of the competition — 2.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 20% (typical match — 11%).
Result
Our model: Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 53%, draw 25%, Iwaki win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Iwaki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 56% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 11% | 7% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.