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Tigres UANL vs Leon: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 21 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Tigres UANL · Leon
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Tigres UANL 6.7, Leon 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Tigres UANL 2.1, Leon 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 47% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 53%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Tigres UANL win 51%, draw 24%, Leon win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Tigres UANL: last five matches — D-W-D-W-W.
- 16 matches unbeaten · at home
Leon: last five matches — D-L-L-D-D.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Tigres UANL — 13, Leon — 5 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Tigres UANL at home and Leon away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Tigres UANL | Leon | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 46 | 41 |
| Win rate | 65% | 22% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 68% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 44% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 44% |
Head to head
29 meetings in our database: Tigres UANL won 12, 9 draws, Leon won 8. Per match: 2.4 goals, 9.8 corners, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 01.02.2026: Leon 1:2 Tigres UANL
- 14.09.2025: Tigres UANL 0:0 Leon
- 23.02.2025: Leon 1:0 Tigres UANL
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Tigres UANL vs Leon?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Tigres UANL vs Leon?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 47%.
Who is more likely to win Tigres UANL vs Leon?
Our model: Tigres UANL 51%, draw 24%, Leon 25%.