Xpect
Tochigi City vs Albirex Niigata: prediction and statistics
Japan · J2 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Tochigi City · Albirex Niigata
Before kick-off
Tochigi City host Albirex Niigata in J2 League on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Albirex Niigata are 3rd of 20, Tochigi City 17th — a gap of 14 places. Albirex Niigata are part of the leading group.
Tochigi City are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Albirex Niigata: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
Home matches have been a struggle for Tochigi City (2024–2026) — 1 win, 2 draws and 5 defeats in 8 games, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.1 on average. Away from home Albirex Niigata have 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 7 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.3 per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.6 per game in home matches of Tochigi City and 3.4 in away matches of Albirex Niigata.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Tochigi City: last five matches — L-D-D-L-L.
- 8 matches without a win · at home
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Albirex Niigata: last five matches — D-L-D-L-W.
Table: Tochigi City — 17, Albirex Niigata — 3 (of 20).
Home and away record
Tochigi City at home and Albirex Niigata away, 2024–2026.
| Tochigi City | Albirex Niigata | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 7 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 1-2-5 | 2-2-3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.1 | 2.3 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 88% of Tochigi City home games and 57% of Albirex Niigata away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Tochigi City 1.9, Albirex Niigata 1.5; typical match of the competition — 2.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 26% (typical match — 11%).
Result
Our model: Tochigi City win 45%, draw 25%, Albirex Niigata win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Tochigi City | Albirex Niigata | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 13% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 75% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 25% | 29% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.