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Tokushima Vortis vs Shonan Bellmare: prediction and statistics
Japan · J2 League · 22 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Tokushima Vortis · Shonan Bellmare
Before kick-off
Tokushima Vortis host Shonan Bellmare in J2 League on 22 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Shonan Bellmare are 8th of 20, Tokushima Vortis 16th — a gap of 8 places.
Results have gone against Tokushima Vortis recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games. The last 5 games brought Shonan Bellmare no victory — 3 draws and 2 defeats. Measured in points the two runs are close — 3 and 3.
The home record of Tokushima Vortis (2024–2026) is balanced: 19 wins, 10 draws and 18 defeats in 47 matches, 1.1 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. On the road Shonan Bellmare are a dangerous side — 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeat in 9 away matches, 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Both samples are low on goals: 2.0 per game in home matches of Tokushima Vortis and 1.8 in away matches of Shonan Bellmare.
Draws are a feature of this pairing — 4 in 8 meetings. Last time out (27 November 2021) it ended Shonan Bellmare 0:1 Tokushima Vortis. On average these meetings produce 1.5 goals.
Form
Tokushima Vortis: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 20 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 4 losses in a row · at home
- 4 matches without a win · at home
Shonan Bellmare: last five matches — D-L-D-L-D.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Tokushima Vortis — 16, Shonan Bellmare — 8 (of 20).
Home and away record
Tokushima Vortis at home and Shonan Bellmare away, 2024–2026.
| Tokushima Vortis | Shonan Bellmare | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 9 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 19-10-18 | 3-5-1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.8 |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Tokushima Vortis won 1, 4 draws, Shonan Bellmare won 3. Per match: 1.5 goals.
- 27.11.2021: Shonan Bellmare 0:1 Tokushima Vortis
- 30.05.2021: Tokushima Vortis 1:1 Shonan Bellmare
- 14.12.2019: Shonan Bellmare 1:1 Tokushima Vortis
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Tokushima Vortis 34%, draw 28%, Shonan Bellmare 38%.
- 4 of the 8 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 32% of Tokushima Vortis home games and 22% of Shonan Bellmare away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.3 yellow cards: Tokushima Vortis 2.0, Shonan Bellmare 1.3; typical match of the competition — 2.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 24% (typical match — 11%).
Result
Our model: Tokushima Vortis win 34%, draw 28%, Shonan Bellmare win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 48%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Tokushima Vortis | Shonan Bellmare | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 22% |
| Both teams score | 38% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 13% | 11% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 0.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.