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Toluca vs Club Tijuana: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 22 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Toluca · Club Tijuana
Key facts
- Toluca should win the corner count: 6.5 expected against 3.3 for Club Tijuana.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 70% of Toluca home games and 60% of Club Tijuana away games.
- Our model makes Toluca the favourite at 68%; a draw is 19%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Toluca 6.5, Club Tijuana 3.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 52%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Toluca 2.1, Club Tijuana 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 68%, typical match 66%.
Result
Our model: Toluca win 68%, draw 19%, Club Tijuana win 13%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 48%.
Form
Toluca: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Club Tijuana: last five matches — L-L-L-D-D.
- 7 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Toluca — 2, Club Tijuana — 8 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Toluca at home and Club Tijuana away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Toluca | Club Tijuana | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 40 |
| Win rate | 68% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 66% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | 8.8 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 40% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 43% |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Toluca won 11, 3 draws, Club Tijuana won 8. Per match: 2.9 goals, 10.3 corners, 4.1 yellow cards.
- 14.02.2026: Toluca 1:0 Club Tijuana
- 23.10.2025: Club Tijuana 0:0 Toluca
- 11.01.2025: Club Tijuana 2:4 Toluca
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Toluca vs Club Tijuana?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in Toluca vs Club Tijuana?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 49%.
Who is more likely to win Toluca vs Club Tijuana?
Our model: Toluca 68%, draw 19%, Club Tijuana 13%.