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Třinec vs Dukla Praha: prediction and statistics
Czechia · Chance Národní liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Třinec · Dukla Praha
Before kick-off
Chance Národní liga, 21 November 2026: Třinec are at home to Dukla Praha. Dukla Praha sit 2nd in the 16-team table while Třinec are 15th, so 13 places separate the two sides. Třinec are fighting at the wrong end of the table. Dukla Praha are in the top three.
Třinec are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Dukla Praha have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Třinec have not made their ground a fortress: 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 0.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. The away record of Dukla Praha: 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 6 matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 8 meetings — wins: Třinec 2, Dukla Praha 4; draws: 2. The most recent meeting, on 4 March 2023, finished Dukla Praha 2:0 Třinec. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
Třinec: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 losses in a row · at home
- 3 matches without a win · at home
Dukla Praha: last five matches — W-D-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Třinec — 15, Dukla Praha — 2 (of 16).
Home and away record
Třinec at home and Dukla Praha away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Třinec | Dukla Praha | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 1-2-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Třinec won 2, 2 draws, Dukla Praha won 4. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 04.03.2023: Dukla Praha 2:0 Třinec
- 13.08.2022: Třinec 2:0 Dukla Praha
- 27.11.2021: Dukla Praha 0:0 Třinec
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Třinec’s home matches and 83% of Dukla Praha’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Třinec 2.2, Dukla Praha 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Třinec win 28%, draw 23%, Dukla Praha win 49%. Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 62%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Třinec | Dukla Praha | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 17% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 83% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 17% | 33% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.