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Alavés vs Deportivo: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Alavés · Deportivo
Before kick-off
Alavés host Deportivo in La Liga on 21 November 2026. In the standings Alavés are 12th and Deportivo 9th out of 20 teams.
Alavés have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Deportivo: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
The home record of Alavés (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 16 wins, 13 draws and 15 defeats in 44 matches, 1.1 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Away from home Deportivo have 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats in 6 matches, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The 17 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Alavés 9, Deportivo 6, draws 2. Last time out (6 January 2021) it ended Deportivo 0:1 Alavés. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Alavés: last five matches — W-W-L-L-D.
- 5 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · at home
Deportivo: last five matches — D-L-L-W-D.
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Alavés — 12, Deportivo — 9 (of 20).
Home and away record
Alavés at home and Deportivo away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Alavés | Deportivo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-13-15 | 1-3-2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Alavés won 9, 2 draws, Deportivo won 6. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 06.01.2021: Deportivo 0:1 Alavés
- 17.02.2018: Alavés 1:0 Deportivo
- 20.09.2017: Deportivo 1:0 Alavés
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Alavés 45%, draw 25%, Deportivo 30%.
- Alavés should win the corner count: 6.0 expected against 3.8 for Deportivo.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 39% of Alavés home games and 33% of Deportivo away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Alavés 6.0, Deportivo 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Alavés 2.1, Deportivo 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 44%.
Result
Our model: Alavés win 45%, draw 25%, Deportivo win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Alavés | Deportivo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 36% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 11.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 67% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 50% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.7 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.