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Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Rayo Vallecano · Valencia
Before kick-off
La Liga, 21 November 2026: Rayo Vallecano are at home to Valencia. Rayo Vallecano go into the match 14th of 20 in the table, Valencia are 19th. Valencia are in the bottom three.
Recent results of Rayo Vallecano are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Valencia have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 10 against 10.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Rayo Vallecano have 16 wins, 19 draws and 8 defeats in 43 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The away record of Valencia: 9 wins, 14 draws and 20 defeats in 43 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 36 meetings — wins: Rayo Vallecano 8, Valencia 16; draws: 12. The most recent meeting, on 14 May 2026, finished Valencia 1:1 Rayo Vallecano. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Rayo Vallecano: last five matches — D-W-W-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Valencia: last five matches — L-W-D-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Rayo Vallecano — 14, Valencia — 19 (of 20).
Home and away record
Rayo Vallecano at home and Valencia away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Rayo Vallecano | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-19-8 | 9-14-20 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
Head to head
36 meetings in our database: Rayo Vallecano won 8, 12 draws, Valencia won 16. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 14.05.2026: Valencia 1:1 Rayo Vallecano
- 01.12.2025: Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Valencia
- 19.04.2025: Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Valencia
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 44% of Rayo Vallecano’s home matches and 44% of Valencia’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Rayo Vallecano: 5.9 against 3.9 for Valencia.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Rayo Vallecano 5.9, Valencia 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Rayo Vallecano 2.4, Valencia 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 52% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 73%.
Result
Our model: Rayo Vallecano win 47%, draw 25%, Valencia win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 56%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Rayo Vallecano | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 37% | 21% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 10.6 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 63% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 47% | 33% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.6 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.