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Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Real Madrid · Celta Vigo
Before kick-off
Real Madrid host Celta Vigo in La Liga on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Real Madrid are 2nd of 20, Celta Vigo 11th — a gap of 9 places. Real Madrid are in the top three.
Real Madrid arrive in excellent form: 5 wins in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Celta Vigo: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Real Madrid took 15 from that stretch and Celta Vigo only 7.
Home advantage matters here: Real Madrid have 37 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats in 43 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.9 per game. Away from home Celta Vigo have 13 wins, 15 draws and 15 defeats in 43 matches, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4 per game.
History favours Real Madrid — 39 wins from 55 meetings with Celta Vigo. Last time out (6 March 2026) it ended Celta Vigo 1:2 Real Madrid. On average these meetings produce 3.5 goals.
Form
Real Madrid: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 13 matches unbeaten · at home
- 8 wins in a row · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Celta Vigo: last five matches — L-D-W-L-W.
- 9 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Real Madrid — 2, Celta Vigo — 11 (of 20).
Home and away record
Real Madrid at home and Celta Vigo away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Real Madrid | Celta Vigo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 37-2-4 | 13-15-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
Head to head
55 meetings in our database: Real Madrid won 39, 5 draws, Celta Vigo won 11. Per match: 3.5 goals.
- 06.03.2026: Celta Vigo 1:2 Real Madrid
- 07.12.2025: Real Madrid 0:2 Celta Vigo
- 04.05.2025: Real Madrid 3:2 Celta Vigo
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Real Madrid should win the corner count: 6.6 expected against 2.7 for Celta Vigo.
- Real Madrid has won 39 of the last 55 meetings with Celta Vigo.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 63% of Real Madrid home games and 51% of Celta Vigo away games.
- Our model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 75%; a draw is 16%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Real Madrid 6.6, Celta Vigo 2.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 55%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Real Madrid 1.9, Celta Vigo 2.2; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 44%.
Result
Our model: Real Madrid win 75%, draw 16%, Celta Vigo win 9%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 43%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Real Madrid | Celta Vigo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 86% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 51% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 8.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 63% | 23% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 30% | 47% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.