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Alcochetense vs Maritimo: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Result
Our model: Alcochetense win 11%, draw 21%, Maritimo win 68%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 39%.
Form
Alcochetense: last five matches — D-D-W-D-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Maritimo: last five matches — L-W-L-L-D.
- 8 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Alcochetense at home and Maritimo away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Alcochetense | Maritimo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| Win rate | 100% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 0% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Alcochetense vs Maritimo?
Our model: Alcochetense 11%, draw 21%, Maritimo 68%.