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Alpendorada vs Casa Pia: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Alpendorada · Casa Pia
Result
Our model: Alpendorada win 15%, draw 22%, Casa Pia win 64%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Alpendorada: last five matches — W.
Casa Pia: last five matches — L-L-L-D-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Alpendorada at home and Casa Pia away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Alpendorada | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Win rate | 67% | 100% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.8 | 3.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 0% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 1.8 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 17% | 33% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Alpendorada won 0, 0 draws, Casa Pia won 1. Per match: 3.0 goals, 3.0 yellow cards.
- 22.11.2025: Alpendorada 0:3 Casa Pia
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Alpendorada vs Casa Pia?
Our model: Alpendorada 15%, draw 22%, Casa Pia 64%.