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Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir: prediction and statistics
Scotland · Championship · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Arbroath · Stenhousemuir
Before kick-off
Championship, 21 November 2026: Arbroath are at home to Stenhousemuir. Stenhousemuir sit 2nd in the 10-team table while Arbroath are 8th, so 6 places separate the two sides. Arbroath are fighting at the wrong end of the table. Stenhousemuir are in the top three.
Recent results of Arbroath are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. Stenhousemuir have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Arbroath have 11 wins, 10 draws and 4 defeats in 25 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The away record of Stenhousemuir: 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats in 10 matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 9 meetings — wins: Arbroath 5, Stenhousemuir 4; draws: 0. The most recent meeting, on 19 September 2026, finished Stenhousemuir 1:0 Arbroath. On average these meetings produce 3.1 goals.
Form
Arbroath: last five matches — W-L-L-W-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Stenhousemuir: last five matches — W-W-L-L-L.
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Arbroath — 8, Stenhousemuir — 2 (of 10).
Home and away record
Arbroath at home and Stenhousemuir away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Arbroath | Stenhousemuir | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 10 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 11-10-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Arbroath won 5, 0 draws, Stenhousemuir won 4. Per match: 3.1 goals.
- 19.09.2026: Stenhousemuir 1:0 Arbroath
- 12.04.2025: Arbroath 4:0 Stenhousemuir
- 22.02.2025: Stenhousemuir 2:0 Arbroath
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 29% – 28% – 43%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 48% of Arbroath’s home matches and 40% of Stenhousemuir’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Arbroath 1.8, Stenhousemuir 2.4; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 62%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Arbroath win 29%, draw 28%, Stenhousemuir win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Arbroath | Stenhousemuir | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 7.9 | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 17% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 52% | 60% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.