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Dunfermline vs Morton: prediction and statistics
Scotland · Championship · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Dunfermline · Morton
Before kick-off
Dunfermline host Morton in Championship on 21 November 2026. In the standings Dunfermline are 4th and Morton 9th out of 10 teams. Morton are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Dunfermline have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Morton: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games.
The home record of Dunfermline (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 17 wins, 14 draws and 11 defeats in 42 matches, 1.3 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Away from home Morton have 9 wins, 14 draws and 20 defeats in 43 matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 per game.
The 43 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Dunfermline 15, Morton 16, draws 12. Last time out (19 September 2026) it ended Morton 0:1 Dunfermline. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Dunfermline: last five matches — W-L-D-D-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Morton: last five matches — L-L-W-W-L.
Table: Dunfermline — 4, Morton — 9 (of 10).
Home and away record
Dunfermline at home and Morton away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Dunfermline | Morton | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 17-14-11 | 9-14-20 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.7 |
Head to head
43 meetings in our database: Dunfermline won 15, 12 draws, Morton won 16. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 19.09.2026: Morton 0:1 Dunfermline
- 04.04.2026: Dunfermline 3:1 Morton
- 17.02.2026: Morton 2:0 Dunfermline
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 36% of Dunfermline home games and 51% of Morton away games.
- Our model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 71%; a draw is 20%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Dunfermline 1.7, Morton 2.3; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 56%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Dunfermline win 71%, draw 20%, Morton win 10%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 36%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Dunfermline | Morton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 21% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 51% |
| Both teams score | 36% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 10.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 37% | 62% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 45% | 37% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.