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Atlas vs Club America: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 22 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Atlas · Club America
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 54% of Atlas home games and 48% of Club America away games.
- Club America should win the corner count: 5.9 expected against 4.0 for Atlas.
- Club America has won 14 of the last 22 meetings with Atlas.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Atlas 4.0, Club America 5.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 53%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Atlas 2.2, Club America 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Atlas win 28%, draw 26%, Club America win 47%. Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
Atlas: last five matches — W-L-D-D-D.
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Club America: last five matches — W-L-L-W-L.
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Atlas — 6, Club America — 1 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Atlas at home and Club America away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Atlas | Club America | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 48 |
| Win rate | 32% | 38% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 38% |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Atlas won 4, 4 draws, Club America won 14. Per match: 2.5 goals, 8.3 corners, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 26.04.2026: Club America 0:1 Atlas
- 25.08.2025: Atlas 2:4 Club America
- 16.03.2025: Atlas 1:3 Club America
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atlas vs Club America?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 53%.
How many yellow cards in Atlas vs Club America?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Atlas vs Club America?
Our model: Atlas 28%, draw 26%, Club America 47%.