Xpect
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Atletico-MG 6.2, Coritiba 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 55%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Atletico-MG 1.9, Coritiba 1.8; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 68%, typical match 45%.
Result
Market line without margin: Atletico-MG win 64%, draw 23%, Coritiba win 13%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 48%.
Form
Atletico-MG: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 14 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Coritiba: last five matches — D-D-W-L-L.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Atletico-MG — 7, Coritiba — 9 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Atletico-MG at home and Coritiba away, 2024–2026.
| Atletico-MG | Coritiba | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 15 |
| Win rate | 46% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 40% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 52% | 33% |
Head to head
21 meetings in our database: Atletico-MG won 12, 2 draws, Coritiba won 7. Per match: 2.3 goals, 9.4 corners, 4.6 yellow cards.
- 19.04.2026: Coritiba 2:0 Atletico-MG
- 08.10.2023: Atletico-MG 1:2 Coritiba
- 20.05.2023: Coritiba 1:2 Atletico-MG
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Our model expects 10.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 58%.
How many yellow cards in Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Market line without margin: Atletico-MG 64%, draw 23%, Coritiba 13%.