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Bari vs Crotone: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone C · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Result
Our model: Bari win 63%, draw 22%, Crotone win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 44%.
Form
Bari: last five matches — D-W-D-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Crotone: last five matches — D-L-D-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Bari — 2, Crotone — 19 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Bari at home and Crotone away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Bari | Crotone | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 41 |
| Win rate | 80% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 0% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Bari vs Crotone?
Our model: Bari 63%, draw 22%, Crotone 15%.