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Potenza vs Catania: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone C · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Result
Our model: Potenza win 55%, draw 23%, Catania win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 57%.
Form
Potenza: last five matches — W-D-W-W-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Catania: last five matches — L-L-W-W-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Potenza — 1, Catania — 4 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Potenza at home and Catania away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Potenza | Catania | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 42 |
| Win rate | 50% | 43% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 52% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Potenza won 4, 8 draws, Catania won 5. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 19.04.2026: Catania 1:1 Potenza
- 14.12.2025: Potenza 1:1 Catania
- 07.05.2025: Catania 1:0 Potenza
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Potenza vs Catania?
Our model: Potenza 55%, draw 23%, Catania 23%.