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Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: prediction and statistics

Europe · Champions League · 21 October 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Bayern Munich · Arsenal

Key facts

Corners

52%

Corners under 9.5

Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Bayern Munich 5.2, Arsenal 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 50%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 51%.

Yellow cards

68%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Bayern Munich 1.6, Arsenal 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 43%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 68%, typical match 57%.

Result

Our model: Bayern Munich win 32%, draw 22%, Arsenal win 47%. Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 67%.

European cups

Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format

Bayern Munich

All 16: 12W · 2D · 2L · goals 51:23
Home 8: 7W · 1D · 0L · goals 26:7

League · Bundesliga 2026/27: 3 of 18 · 3W · 2D · 0L · goals 16:4. Germany — 4 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 82.0).

Arsenal

All 17: 13W · 3D · 1L · goals 37:11
Away 9: 6W · 2D · 1L · goals 19:8

League · Premier League 2026/27: 2 of 20 · 5W · 0D · 1L · goals 10:5. England — 1 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 104.0).

UCL: league phase 2026/27: Bayern Munich — 4 of 36 · 4 pts · 2 played; Arsenal — 3 of 36 · 6 pts · 2 played.

Head to head in Europe

Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.

Form

Bayern Munich: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.

Arsenal: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.

Team statistics for three seasons

Bayern Munich at home and Arsenal away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Bayern MunichArsenal
Matches1516
Win rate80%63%
Goals scored per match3.02.3
Goals conceded per match0.90.9
Over 2.5 goals67%56%
Both teams score60%56%
Total corners per match8.58.9
Over 9.5 corners33%40%
Total yellow cards per match3.53.8
Over 4.5 yellow cards33%33%

Head to head

11 meetings in our database: Bayern Munich won 6, 2 draws, Arsenal won 3. Per match: 3.5 goals, 10.1 corners, 3.4 yellow cards.

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers

How many corners in Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?

Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.

How many yellow cards in Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?

Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 32%.

Who is more likely to win Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?

Our model: Bayern Munich 32%, draw 22%, Arsenal 47%.

Other matches

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