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Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 4 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Boca Juniors 5.3, Union Santa Fe 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Boca Juniors 2.2, Union Santa Fe 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 74%.
Result
Market line without margin: Boca Juniors win 60%, draw 26%, Union Santa Fe win 14%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 44%.
Form
Boca Juniors: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 14 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · at home
Union Santa Fe: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Boca Juniors — 6, Union Santa Fe — 14 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Boca Juniors at home and Union Santa Fe away, 2024–2026.
| Boca Juniors | Union Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 44 |
| Win rate | 57% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 36% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.3 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 66% | 41% |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Boca Juniors won 6, 5 draws, Union Santa Fe won 4. Per match: 2.3 goals, 7.8 corners, 5.5 yellow cards.
- 16.03.2026: Union Santa Fe 1:1 Boca Juniors
- 18.07.2025: Boca Juniors 1:1 Union Santa Fe
- 29.01.2025: Union Santa Fe 1:1 Boca Juniors
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 44%.
How many yellow cards in Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 51%.
Who is more likely to win Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
Market line without margin: Boca Juniors 60%, draw 26%, Union Santa Fe 14%.