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Chelyabinsk vs Veles: prediction and statistics
Russia · First League · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Chelyabinsk · Veles
Before kick-off
Chelyabinsk host Veles in First League on 15 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Veles are 5th of 18, Chelyabinsk 11th — a gap of 6 places.
Chelyabinsk have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Veles: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
The home record of Chelyabinsk (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 10 wins, 9 draws and 6 defeats in 25 matches, 1.6 scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Away from home Veles have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 8 matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The 7 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Chelyabinsk 3, Veles 3, draws 1. Last time out (19 July 2026) it ended Veles 1:0 Chelyabinsk. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Chelyabinsk: last five matches — L-W-D-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Veles: last five matches — D-L-D-W-L.
Table: Chelyabinsk — 11, Veles — 5 (of 18).
Home and away record
Chelyabinsk at home and Veles away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Chelyabinsk | Veles | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 8 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 10-9-6 | 3-2-3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Chelyabinsk won 3, 1 draws, Veles won 3. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 19.07.2026: Veles 1:0 Chelyabinsk
- 08.06.2025: Veles 2:1 Chelyabinsk
- 23.04.2025: Chelyabinsk 3:1 Veles
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Chelyabinsk 41%, draw 27%, Veles 33%.
- Chelyabinsk should win the corner count: 5.5 expected against 4.1 for Veles.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 56% of Chelyabinsk home games and 25% of Veles away games.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Chelyabinsk 5.5, Veles 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 62%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Chelyabinsk 1.6, Veles 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Chelyabinsk win 41%, draw 27%, Veles win 33%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 51%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Chelyabinsk | Veles | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 25% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 12.4 | 6.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 100% | 17% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 38% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.