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Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca: prediction and statistics
Peru · Primera División · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Cienciano 5.7, UTC Cajamarca 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Cienciano 1.8, UTC Cajamarca 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 42%.
Result
Our model: Cienciano win 58%, draw 22%, UTC Cajamarca win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Cienciano: last five matches — W-D-L-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
UTC Cajamarca: last five matches — L-L-D-L-L.
- 13 matches without a win · away
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Cienciano — 6, UTC Cajamarca — 18 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Cienciano at home and UTC Cajamarca away, 2024–2026.
| Cienciano | UTC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 48 | 49 |
| Win rate | 52% | 10% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 7.8 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 23% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 45% |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Cienciano won 5, 5 draws, UTC Cajamarca won 3. Per match: 3.3 goals, 10.4 corners, 5.1 yellow cards.
- 26.04.2026: UTC Cajamarca 2:2 Cienciano
- 13.10.2025: UTC Cajamarca 0:2 Cienciano
- 24.05.2025: Cienciano 6:1 UTC Cajamarca
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 47%.
How many yellow cards in Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 46%.
Who is more likely to win Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our model: Cienciano 58%, draw 22%, UTC Cajamarca 21%.