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CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat Grozny: prediction and statistics
Russia · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: CSKA Moscow · Akhmat Grozny
Before kick-off
Premier League, 21 November 2026: CSKA Moscow are at home to Akhmat Grozny. CSKA Moscow sit 5th in the 16-team table while Akhmat Grozny are 12th, so 7 places separate the two sides.
Few sides are in better shape than CSKA Moscow right now — 5 wins from the last 5 games. Akhmat Grozny are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 15 for CSKA Moscow against 2 for Akhmat Grozny.
CSKA Moscow are hard to beat on their own ground — 23 wins, 8 draws and 7 defeats in 38 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 1.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Akhmat Grozny — 2 wins, 15 draws and 21 defeats in 38 away matches, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.7 on average.
Head to head, CSKA Moscow have the upper hand: 23 wins in 31 meetings with Akhmat Grozny in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Akhmat Grozny 1:0 CSKA Moscow. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
CSKA Moscow: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 6 wins in a row · at home
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
Akhmat Grozny: last five matches — D-L-L-D-L.
- 10 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: CSKA Moscow — 5, Akhmat Grozny — 12 (of 16).
Home and away record
CSKA Moscow at home and Akhmat Grozny away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| CSKA Moscow | Akhmat Grozny | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 38 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 23-8-7 | 2-15-21 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.7 |
Head to head
31 meetings in our database: CSKA Moscow won 23, 3 draws, Akhmat Grozny won 5. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 01.03.2026: Akhmat Grozny 1:0 CSKA Moscow
- 27.07.2025: CSKA Moscow 2:1 Akhmat Grozny
- 04.05.2025: Akhmat Grozny 1:1 CSKA Moscow
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 45% of CSKA Moscow’s home matches and 42% of Akhmat Grozny’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours CSKA Moscow: 23 wins in 31 meetings with Akhmat Grozny.
- CSKA Moscow is the more likely winner in our model: 57%, draw 24%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: CSKA Moscow 4.8, Akhmat Grozny 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 61%, typical match 60%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: CSKA Moscow 1.8, Akhmat Grozny 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: CSKA Moscow win 57%, draw 24%, Akhmat Grozny win 19%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 48%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| CSKA Moscow | Akhmat Grozny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 61% | 5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 45% | 47% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.9 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.