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Gazovik Orenburg vs FC Baltika Kaliningrad: prediction and statistics
Russia · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Gazovik Orenburg · FC Baltika Kaliningrad
Before kick-off
Gazovik Orenburg host FC Baltika Kaliningrad in Premier League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Gazovik Orenburg are 10th, FC Baltika Kaliningrad 9th in a table of 16.
Gazovik Orenburg arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. No defeats for FC Baltika Kaliningrad in the last 5 games (2 wins and 3 draws).
Home matches have been a struggle for Gazovik Orenburg (2024/25–2026/27) — 10 wins, 14 draws and 13 defeats in 37 games, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 on average. Away from home FC Baltika Kaliningrad have 6 wins, 11 draws and 4 defeats in 21 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 per game.
The 10 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Gazovik Orenburg 4, FC Baltika Kaliningrad 3, draws 3. Last time out (22 November 2025) it ended Gazovik Orenburg 0:0 FC Baltika Kaliningrad. On average these meetings produce 2.1 goals.
Form
Gazovik Orenburg: last five matches — D-W-W-W-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
FC Baltika Kaliningrad: last five matches — W-D-D-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Gazovik Orenburg — 10, FC Baltika Kaliningrad — 9 (of 16).
Home and away record
Gazovik Orenburg at home and FC Baltika Kaliningrad away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Gazovik Orenburg | FC Baltika Kaliningrad | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 21 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 10-14-13 | 6-11-4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Gazovik Orenburg won 4, 3 draws, FC Baltika Kaliningrad won 3. Per match: 2.1 goals.
- 22.11.2025: Gazovik Orenburg 0:0 FC Baltika Kaliningrad
- 03.08.2025: FC Baltika Kaliningrad 3:2 Gazovik Orenburg
- 10.03.2024: Gazovik Orenburg 1:0 FC Baltika Kaliningrad
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 51% of Gazovik Orenburg home games and 33% of FC Baltika Kaliningrad away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Gazovik Orenburg 38%, draw 27%, FC Baltika Kaliningrad 35%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Gazovik Orenburg 4.8, FC Baltika Kaliningrad 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 57%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Gazovik Orenburg 2.2, FC Baltika Kaliningrad 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Gazovik Orenburg win 38%, draw 27%, FC Baltika Kaliningrad win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Gazovik Orenburg | FC Baltika Kaliningrad | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 27% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 8.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 29% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 62% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 7.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.