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Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Cucuta · Atletico Nacional
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Cucuta 3.5, Atletico Nacional 5.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.5 yellow cards: Cucuta 2.5, Atletico Nacional 2.9; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 64% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 79%, typical match 82%.
Result
Our model: Cucuta win 17%, draw 23%, Atletico Nacional win 59%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Cucuta: last five matches — W-D-L-W-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Atletico Nacional: last five matches — L-W-W-W-L.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Cucuta — 15, Atletico Nacional — 1 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Cucuta at home and Atletico Nacional away, 2024–2026.
| Cucuta | Atletico Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 68 |
| Win rate | 40% | 40% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 36% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.9 | 6.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 73% | 75% |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Cucuta won 1, 1 draws, Atletico Nacional won 6. Per match: 2.6 goals, 8.8 corners, 5.4 yellow cards.
- 02.04.2026: Atletico Nacional 0:0 Cucuta
- 05.08.2025: Cucuta 0:3 Atletico Nacional
- 29.07.2025: Atletico Nacional 1:0 Cucuta
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 44%.
How many yellow cards in Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional?
Our model expects 5.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 64%.
Who is more likely to win Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional?
Our model: Cucuta 17%, draw 23%, Atletico Nacional 59%.