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Cusco vs ADT: prediction and statistics
Peru · Primera División · 16 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Primera División, 16 November 2026: Cusco are at home to ADT. Cusco sit 6th in the 18-team table while ADT are 15th, so 9 places separate the two sides.
An uneven run for Cusco: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. ADT are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Cusco are hard to beat on their own ground — 35 wins, 9 draws and 8 defeats in 52 home matches (2024–2026), with 1.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for ADT — 7 wins, 17 draws and 26 defeats in 50 away matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.7 on average.
Head to head, Cusco have the upper hand: 5 wins in 7 meetings with ADT in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 30 May 2026, finished ADT 1:2 Cusco. On average these meetings produce 2.7 goals.
Form
Cusco: last five matches — W-L-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
ADT: last five matches — L-L-L-D-D.
- 9 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Cusco — 6, ADT — 15 (of 18).
Home and away record
Cusco at home and ADT away, 2024–2026.
| Cusco | ADT | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 50 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 35-9-8 | 7-17-26 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.7 |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Cusco won 5, 0 draws, ADT won 2. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 30.05.2026: ADT 1:2 Cusco
- 23.09.2025: Cusco 0:2 ADT
- 28.04.2025: ADT 2:1 Cusco
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Cusco is the more likely winner in our model: 61%, draw 22%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 46% of Cusco’s home matches and 48% of ADT’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Cusco: 5 wins in 7 meetings with ADT.
- Our model expects more corners from Cusco: 5.6 against 3.7 for ADT.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Cusco 5.6, ADT 3.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 55%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Cusco 2.2, ADT 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 69%, typical match 75%.
Result
Our model: Cusco win 61%, draw 22%, ADT win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Cusco | ADT | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 67% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 8.7 | 8.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 35% | 32% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 54% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.