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UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau: prediction and statistics
Peru · Primera División · 16 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: UCV Moquegua · Atletico Grau
Before kick-off
UCV Moquegua host Atletico Grau in Primera División on 16 November 2026. In the standings UCV Moquegua are 17th and Atletico Grau 14th out of 18 teams. UCV Moquegua are in the bottom three.
UCV Moquegua are still looking for a win: 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Atletico Grau are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Home matches have been a struggle for UCV Moquegua (2024–2026) — 4 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats in 16 games, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 on average. Atletico Grau find it hard on the road: 9 wins, 13 draws and 28 defeats in 50 away matches, 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 1 meeting between them. Last time out (29 May 2026) it ended Atletico Grau 1:0 UCV Moquegua.
Form
UCV Moquegua: last five matches — L-L-L-L-D.
- 9 matches without a win · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Atletico Grau: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 4 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: UCV Moquegua — 17, Atletico Grau — 14 (of 18).
Home and away record
UCV Moquegua at home and Atletico Grau away, 2024–2026.
| UCV Moquegua | Atletico Grau | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 50 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 4-6-6 | 9-13-28 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: UCV Moquegua won 0, 0 draws, Atletico Grau won 1. Per match: 1.0 goals.
- 29.05.2026: Atletico Grau 1:0 UCV Moquegua
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: UCV Moquegua 40%, draw 28%, Atletico Grau 32%.
- UCV Moquegua should win the corner count: 5.1 expected against 4.0 for Atletico Grau.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 56% of UCV Moquegua home games and 46% of Atletico Grau away games.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: UCV Moquegua 5.1, Atletico Grau 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 57%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: UCV Moquegua 2.3, Atletico Grau 2.1; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 43%.
Result
Our model: UCV Moquegua win 40%, draw 28%, Atletico Grau win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 46%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| UCV Moquegua | Atletico Grau | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 25% | 18% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 38% | 32% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 30% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.