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UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas: prediction and statistics
Peru · Primera División · 16 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: UTC Cajamarca · Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Before kick-off
Primera División, 16 November 2026: UTC Cajamarca are at home to Club Deportivo Los Chankas. Club Deportivo Los Chankas sit 10th in the 18-team table while UTC Cajamarca are 18th, so 8 places separate the two sides. UTC Cajamarca are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
The last 5 games brought UTC Cajamarca no victory — 5 defeats. Club Deportivo Los Chankas are still looking for a win: 3 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
UTC Cajamarca have not made their ground a fortress: 14 wins, 14 draws and 23 defeats in 51 home matches (2024–2026), 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Club Deportivo Los Chankas — 8 wins, 15 draws and 28 defeats in 51 away matches, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.9 on average.
This fixture often ends level: 2 of the 5 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 31 May 2026, finished Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2:2 UTC Cajamarca. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
UTC Cajamarca: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 8 matches without a win · at home
- 6 losses in a row · at home
Club Deportivo Los Chankas: last five matches — L-D-D-L-D.
- 9 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: UTC Cajamarca — 18, Club Deportivo Los Chankas — 10 (of 18).
Home and away record
UTC Cajamarca at home and Club Deportivo Los Chankas away, 2024–2026.
| UTC Cajamarca | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 51 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-14-23 | 8-15-28 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: UTC Cajamarca won 2, 2 draws, Club Deportivo Los Chankas won 1. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 31.05.2026: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2:2 UTC Cajamarca
- 29.09.2025: UTC Cajamarca 2:0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 11.05.2025: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2:1 UTC Cajamarca
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Draws are common in this fixture: 2 of 5 meetings.
- Our model expects more corners from UTC Cajamarca: 5.9 against 3.7 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
- UTC Cajamarca is the more likely winner in our model: 55%, draw 23%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 49% of UTC Cajamarca’s home matches and 55% of Club Deportivo Los Chankas’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: UTC Cajamarca 5.9, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: UTC Cajamarca 2.2, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2.0; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 43%.
Result
Our model: UTC Cajamarca win 55%, draw 23%, Club Deportivo Los Chankas win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 55%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| UTC Cajamarca | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 27% | 16% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 55% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 45% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 53% | 47% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.