Xpect
Fajr Sepasi vs Chadormalu SC: prediction and statistics
Iran · Persian Gulf Pro League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Fajr Sepasi · Chadormalu SC
Before kick-off
Fajr Sepasi host Chadormalu SC in Persian Gulf Pro League on 20 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Fajr Sepasi are 7th, Chadormalu SC 8th in a table of 18.
Fajr Sepasi are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 2 wins and 3 draws. Recent results of Chadormalu SC are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 9 and 10.
The home record of Fajr Sepasi (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 8 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats in 16 matches, 1.1 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Away from home Chadormalu SC have 8 wins, 11 draws and 14 defeats in 33 matches, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Both samples are low on goals: 2.1 per game in home matches of Fajr Sepasi and 2.0 in away matches of Chadormalu SC.
History favours Chadormalu SC — 3 wins from 3 meetings with Fajr Sepasi. Last time out (10 December 2025) it ended Fajr Sepasi 1:2 Chadormalu SC. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Fajr Sepasi: last five matches — D-D-D-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
Chadormalu SC: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Fajr Sepasi — 7, Chadormalu SC — 8 (of 18).
Home and away record
Fajr Sepasi at home and Chadormalu SC away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Fajr Sepasi | Chadormalu SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 33 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 8-4-4 | 8-11-14 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Fajr Sepasi won 0, 0 draws, Chadormalu SC won 3. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 10.12.2025: Fajr Sepasi 1:2 Chadormalu SC
- 30.05.2024: Chadormalu SC 3:0 Fajr Sepasi
- 06.12.2023: Fajr Sepasi 0:1 Chadormalu SC
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Fajr Sepasi 37%, draw 29%, Chadormalu SC 34%.
- Chadormalu SC has won 3 of the last 3 meetings with Fajr Sepasi.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 50% of Fajr Sepasi home games and 33% of Chadormalu SC away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Fajr Sepasi 1.8, Chadormalu SC 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 28%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 56%, typical match 47%.
Result
Our model: Fajr Sepasi win 37%, draw 29%, Chadormalu SC win 34%. Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 45%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Fajr Sepasi | Chadormalu SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 25% | 18% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.