Xpect
ZOB Ahan vs Shams Azar Qazvin: prediction and statistics
Iran · Persian Gulf Pro League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: ZOB Ahan · Shams Azar Qazvin
Before kick-off
Persian Gulf Pro League, 20 November 2026: ZOB Ahan are at home to Shams Azar Qazvin. ZOB Ahan go into the match 14th of 18 in the table, Shams Azar Qazvin are 17th. Shams Azar Qazvin are in the bottom three.
An uneven run for ZOB Ahan: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Shams Azar Qazvin have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 5 against 5.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) ZOB Ahan have 8 wins, 15 draws and 8 defeats in 31 matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. The away record of Shams Azar Qazvin: 7 wins, 10 draws and 14 defeats in 31 matches, with 0.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded on average. Both samples are low on goals: 1.5 per game in home matches of ZOB Ahan and 1.5 in away matches of Shams Azar Qazvin.
This fixture often ends level: 2 of the 5 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 17 December 2025, finished ZOB Ahan 0:0 Shams Azar Qazvin. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
ZOB Ahan: last five matches — D-W-L-L-D.
- 11 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Shams Azar Qazvin: last five matches — D-W-L-D-L.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: ZOB Ahan — 14, Shams Azar Qazvin — 17 (of 18).
Home and away record
ZOB Ahan at home and Shams Azar Qazvin away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| ZOB Ahan | Shams Azar Qazvin | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 31 | 31 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 8-15-8 | 7-10-14 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 0.9 |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: ZOB Ahan won 2, 2 draws, Shams Azar Qazvin won 1. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 17.12.2025: ZOB Ahan 0:0 Shams Azar Qazvin
- 11.04.2025: Shams Azar Qazvin 1:1 ZOB Ahan
- 01.12.2024: ZOB Ahan 3:0 Shams Azar Qazvin
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 26% of ZOB Ahan’s home matches and 13% of Shams Azar Qazvin’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 2 of 5 meetings.
- No clear favourite in our model: 39% – 38% – 24%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: ZOB Ahan 2.1, Shams Azar Qazvin 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 28%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 56%, typical match 47%.
Result
Our model: ZOB Ahan win 39%, draw 38%, Shams Azar Qazvin win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 17%, both teams to score — 25%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| ZOB Ahan | Shams Azar Qazvin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 26% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 13% |
| Both teams score | 32% | 19% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 30% | 45% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.