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FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua: prediction and statistics
Peru · Primera División · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.7 corners in the match: FC Cajamarca 4.9, UCV Moquegua 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 38% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 62%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: FC Cajamarca 2.3, UCV Moquegua 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 52% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 75%.
Result
Our model: FC Cajamarca win 53%, draw 24%, UCV Moquegua win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
FC Cajamarca: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 8 matches without a win · at home
- 6 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 5 losses in a row · at home
UCV Moquegua: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.
- 9 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 6 losses in a row · all competitions
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: FC Cajamarca — 15, UCV Moquegua — 17 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
FC Cajamarca at home and UCV Moquegua away, 2024–2026.
| FC Cajamarca | UCV Moquegua | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| Win rate | 21% | 14% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 86% | 21% |
| Total corners per match | 7.4 | 8.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 14% | 29% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 36% |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: FC Cajamarca won 2, 0 draws, UCV Moquegua won 3. Per match: 2.6 goals, 8.0 corners, 1.0 yellow cards.
- 25.04.2026: UCV Moquegua 2:1 FC Cajamarca
- 02.11.2025: FC Cajamarca 2:0 UCV Moquegua
- 26.10.2025: UCV Moquegua 2:1 FC Cajamarca
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
Our model expects 8.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 38%.
How many yellow cards in FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 52%.
Who is more likely to win FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
Our model: FC Cajamarca 53%, draw 24%, UCV Moquegua 23%.