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FC Cincinnati vs DC United: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 21 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FC Cincinnati · DC United
Key facts
- FC Cincinnati should win the corner count: 6.0 expected against 4.2 for DC United.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 59% of FC Cincinnati home games and 62% of DC United away games.
- Our model makes FC Cincinnati the favourite at 62%; a draw is 19%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: FC Cincinnati 6.0, DC United 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: FC Cincinnati 2.1, DC United 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 62%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: FC Cincinnati win 62%, draw 19%, DC United win 19%. Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 67%.
Form
FC Cincinnati: last five matches — W-L-W-D-D.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
DC United: last five matches — D-D-L-D-L.
- 6 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: FC Cincinnati — 16, DC United — 26 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
FC Cincinnati at home and DC United away, 2024–2026.
| FC Cincinnati | DC United | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 47 |
| Win rate | 51% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 62% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 43% | 43% |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: FC Cincinnati won 4, 4 draws, DC United won 6. Per match: 2.6 goals, 10.5 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 31.05.2025: FC Cincinnati 1:2 DC United
- 12.04.2025: DC United 0:1 FC Cincinnati
- 03.07.2024: DC United 2:3 FC Cincinnati
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in FC Cincinnati vs DC United?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in FC Cincinnati vs DC United?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 42%.
Who is more likely to win FC Cincinnati vs DC United?
Our model: FC Cincinnati 62%, draw 19%, DC United 19%.