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FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum: prediction and statistics
Germany · 2. Bundesliga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FC St. Pauli · VfL Bochum
Before kick-off
2. Bundesliga, 21 November 2026: FC St. Pauli are at home to VfL Bochum. They are neighbours in the table: FC St. Pauli are 9th and VfL Bochum 8th of 18.
An uneven run for FC St. Pauli: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. VfL Bochum have been solid lately: 3 wins and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
FC St. Pauli have not made their ground a fortress: 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. The away record of VfL Bochum: 6 wins, 6 draws and 10 defeats in 22 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 24 meetings — wins: FC St. Pauli 9, VfL Bochum 7; draws: 8. The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2025, finished FC St. Pauli 0:2 VfL Bochum. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
FC St. Pauli: last five matches — L-W-D-W-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
VfL Bochum: last five matches — W-W-L-L-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: FC St. Pauli — 9, VfL Bochum — 8 (of 18).
Home and away record
FC St. Pauli at home and VfL Bochum away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FC St. Pauli | VfL Bochum | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 22 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 2-1-3 | 6-6-10 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: FC St. Pauli won 9, 8 draws, VfL Bochum won 7. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 17.05.2025: FC St. Pauli 0:2 VfL Bochum
- 15.01.2025: VfL Bochum 1:0 FC St. Pauli
- 28.01.2021: FC St. Pauli 2:3 VfL Bochum
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of FC St. Pauli’s home matches and 50% of VfL Bochum’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from FC St. Pauli: 5.9 against 4.0 for VfL Bochum.
- No clear favourite in our model: 34% – 25% – 41%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: FC St. Pauli 5.9, VfL Bochum 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: FC St. Pauli 1.9, VfL Bochum 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 44% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 56%, typical match 56%.
Result
Our model: FC St. Pauli win 34%, draw 25%, VfL Bochum win 41%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FC St. Pauli | VfL Bochum | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 33% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 68% |
| Total corners per match | 12.0 | 11.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 67% | 77% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 59% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.7 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.