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VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel: prediction and statistics
Germany · 2. Bundesliga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: VfL Wolfsburg · Holstein Kiel
Before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg host Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: VfL Wolfsburg are 5th of 18, Holstein Kiel 18th — a gap of 13 places. Holstein Kiel are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
VfL Wolfsburg arrive in excellent form: 5 wins in the last 5 matches. Holstein Kiel are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Counted in points, VfL Wolfsburg took 15 from that stretch and Holstein Kiel only 3.
Home advantage matters here: VfL Wolfsburg have 3 wins and 3 draws in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Away from home Holstein Kiel have 5 wins, 5 draws and 12 defeats in 22 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 per game.
The 5 previous meetings are fairly balanced — VfL Wolfsburg 2, Holstein Kiel 2, draws 1. Last time out (28 October 2025) it ended VfL Wolfsburg 0:1 Holstein Kiel. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · at home
Holstein Kiel: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 4 losses in a row · away
Table: VfL Wolfsburg — 5, Holstein Kiel — 18 (of 18).
Home and away record
VfL Wolfsburg at home and Holstein Kiel away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| VfL Wolfsburg | Holstein Kiel | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 22 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 3-3-0 | 5-5-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: VfL Wolfsburg won 2, 1 draws, Holstein Kiel won 2. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 28.10.2025: VfL Wolfsburg 0:1 Holstein Kiel
- 24.01.2025: VfL Wolfsburg 2:2 Holstein Kiel
- 31.08.2024: Holstein Kiel 0:2 VfL Wolfsburg
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 50% of VfL Wolfsburg home games and 50% of Holstein Kiel away games.
- Our model makes VfL Wolfsburg the favourite at 59%; a draw is 21%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 11.1 corners in the match: VfL Wolfsburg 5.8, Holstein Kiel 5.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 67% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 55%, typical match 43%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: VfL Wolfsburg 2.1, Holstein Kiel 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 69%, typical match 64%.
Result
Our model: VfL Wolfsburg win 59%, draw 21%, Holstein Kiel win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| VfL Wolfsburg | Holstein Kiel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 12.8 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 100% | 59% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 60% | 68% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 9.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.