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FK Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg: prediction and statistics
Bosnia and Herzegovina · Premijer Liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FK Sarajevo · Siroki Brijeg
Before kick-off
Premijer Liga, 21 November 2026: FK Sarajevo are at home to Siroki Brijeg. They are neighbours in the table: FK Sarajevo are 3rd and Siroki Brijeg 4th of 10. FK Sarajevo are part of the leading group.
Few sides are in better shape than FK Sarajevo right now — 4 wins and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Siroki Brijeg have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 12 for FK Sarajevo against 5 for Siroki Brijeg.
FK Sarajevo are hard to beat on their own ground — 25 wins, 11 draws and 5 defeats in 41 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. The away record of Siroki Brijeg: 11 wins, 13 draws and 16 defeats in 40 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 38 meetings — wins: FK Sarajevo 15, Siroki Brijeg 12; draws: 11. The most recent meeting, on 2 September 2026, finished Siroki Brijeg 1:2 FK Sarajevo. On average these meetings produce 2.1 goals.
Form
FK Sarajevo: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 8 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Siroki Brijeg: last five matches — L-D-W-D-L.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: FK Sarajevo — 3, Siroki Brijeg — 4 (of 10).
Home and away record
FK Sarajevo at home and Siroki Brijeg away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FK Sarajevo | Siroki Brijeg | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 40 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 25-11-5 | 11-13-16 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
Head to head
38 meetings in our database: FK Sarajevo won 15, 11 draws, Siroki Brijeg won 12. Per match: 2.1 goals.
- 02.09.2026: Siroki Brijeg 1:2 FK Sarajevo
- 16.05.2026: FK Sarajevo 2:2 Siroki Brijeg
- 15.03.2026: Siroki Brijeg 1:0 FK Sarajevo
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- FK Sarajevo is the more likely winner in our model: 59%, draw 25%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 37% of FK Sarajevo’s home matches and 45% of Siroki Brijeg’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: FK Sarajevo 1.8, Siroki Brijeg 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 61%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: FK Sarajevo win 59%, draw 25%, Siroki Brijeg win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 41%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FK Sarajevo | Siroki Brijeg | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 61% | 28% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 45% |
| Both teams score | 32% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | — | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 49% | 33% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.